It is too close to call as leave campaign lead shrinked
Remain campaign picked up some momentum just three days before the vote on EU referendum. The latest poll showing IN camp at 45 percent and OUT camp at 42 percent. Another poll showed 3 points lead for OUT camp. The third poll call it evenly poised at this stage. Two polls published on Saturday showed slight lead of Remain camp over Leave camp.
It is certain that Remain Campaign made some recovery after the killing of Labour MP Jo Cox. Even UKIP leader Nigel Farage thinks that Jo Cox killing had an adverse effect on the OUT campaign. He said “ It has an impact on the campaign for every body. We did have momentum until this terrible tragedy”. YouGov, a polling firm indicated that since the killing of the Jo Cox, the momentum has swung back to status-quo campaign and Remain camp is now leading. But nothing can be said about the possible outcome of the referendum affirmatively at this moment.
The support for the Remain campaign is still solid in the young people. According to the latest survey, 73 percent people between the age of 18 to 30 are supporting the Remain campaign. On the contrary, people more than 60 years of age is solidly behind the Leave campaign. Overwhelming majority of the middle class professionals are supporting Remain campaign but working people with low academic qualifications are solidly behind the Leave campaign. Seven out of twelve regions are supporting leave campaign, and five are behind Remain campaign. Scotland, northern Ireland and London are majority Remain campaign.
Economy and immigration are key issues
As the campaign resumed after a brief halt due to the killing of Labour MP Jo Cox. Both sides started campaigning from where they left. It has become crystal clear that the campaign is focused on two issues. The Remain campaign is focusing the economic impact of the leaving EU and Leave campaign is focusing on the impact of uncontrolled immigration into Britain. Both sides stick to their respective positions and attacking each other.
UKIP is concentrating hard on the issue of immigration. It is exploiting the fact that 3,30,000 immigrants entered into Britain in 2015. Tories promised to bring the immigration to 1,00,000 per year during the election campaign. UKIP and other far right racist groups are accusing EU for such big number of people into Britain. They want to get their control back from EU over the immigration and want to protect their own borders. UKIP produced poster with the heading Breaking Point, showing a line of refugees entering EU.
This poster is widely criticised for being anti immigrant. The official Leave campaign tried to distanced itself from the poster but defended its focus on immigration. UKIP is criticising the EU for failing to control immigration from Eastern Europe and Muslim refugees from Middle East. Nigel Farage, the leader of UKIP said “Europe is allowing religious extremists, who wanted to attack Western states”.
If the Leave campaign is focused on immigration than the Remain campaign is focused on economy. They are campaigning around the issues of job losses, setbacks to manufacturing, more severe cuts on welfare and austerity, access to single European market and economic isolation of the British economy in the case of Leave campaign wins. The opponents of Remain campaign accusing them of scaremongering on the economy.
The mood in working class
The Remain campaign has failed to convince the layers of working class on economic issues. Prime Minister David Cameron and his colleagues underestimated the anger and hatred against the economic policies of present Tory government. The Remain campaign completely misread the minds of working class people. There is strong anti Tory and anti austerity mood in the layers of working class. They rejected the arguments put forward by Remain campaign on the economic issues of job losses, more cuts and economic hardships in the case of Leave. The workers are arguing that they are already facing economic hardships, severe cuts and austerity and find it difficult to get decent jobs. This line of argument from Remain campaign is not working well with working class communities. The working class communities are sick tired of welfare cuts and austerity and they are taking this referendum as an opportunity to skip this nightmare.
Working class issues
The issue of immigration is playing well with some layers of working class. Working class people in some areas are worried that their jobs will taken away by immigrant workers. They also fear that increased immigration has squeezed the wages and it will further fell. The Leave campaign is playing well with these concerns of the working class people. There are also concerns regarding the overburdened services. More immigrants means more pressure on the services and in the era of cuts and austerity, it means less services for more people.
The affordable housing, rising inequality and increased poverty are the real concerns of the working class communities. All these worries and concerns of the working class communities and poor have been exploited by the Leave campaign. As Remain campaign failed to address these worries and concerns. The working class communities are not supporting the leave campaign on the basis of racism or xenophobia. They have genuine demands to improve the basic services and living standards.
It does not mean that overwhelming majority of working class will vote to Leave. But still layers of working class and poor will vote to Leave. Many might opted to abstain from voting. In some areas more workers might vote to Leave. Some workers might make their minds at the last moment. There is divided opinion among the working class as the case with other segments of the society.