Nothing has changed under Musharaf
When General Musharaf took power in October 1999, after disposing of than Prime minister Nawaz Sharif, he promised to revive the economy, political stability, to root out the wide spread corruption, to develop provincial harmony, to wipe out poverty, establish true democracy, to improve law and order situation and reform the dieing state institutions. After ruling the country with iron hand for last 6 years, he has miserably failed to full fill his one promise. According to well known political commentator Ayaz Amir “ General Musharaf has forget his 7 point agenda and only agenda he remember is to please America and hold on to power” Dawn 19th August.
General Musharaf seems comfortable with having full control over the state machinery and power brokers. In last one year he has been able to strengthen his position in the Army. He has replaced all the prominent Hawks and Fundamentalists from the key positions. Now his liberal moderate aides are occupying all the key posts in the military. He is controlling everything but only from the top, at the bottom things are still gloomy for him. He is enjoying full support from the top military brass, which is crucial for him to retain power in a very hostile political atmosphere. But situation is completely different at the bottom. There are wide spread disillusionment in the ranks about his surrender to the American pressures. This disillusionment is resulting in frustration that exists even in the middle ranks.
“There is an ISI within the ISI, the former more powerful than the original. They were the godfathers of the Taliban. Who attacked president Musharf? Only Army personnel can do this. A third attempt on president Musharaf, s life is also possible. There are people who are enemies of Musharaf sahib. They will not spare me either. My life is in danger too. President Musharaf should be careful about his life. He has his enemies within, that includes army.” State minister for religious affairs Dr. Aamer Liaqat Hussain , daily Times May 7 , 2005.
“A process of Talibanization is under way in North Waziristan and we trying to halt it like we did it in South Waziristan, with help of tribal elders and ulema. Certain people are indoctrinating the tribesmen and certain religio- political parties are also involved in this. Killings of Taliban in skirmishes with with coalition forces in Afghanistan help in this indoctrination of certain tribesmen, while certain US policies, which are disliked by the tribesmen and other Pakistanis, also spark such policies.
Pakistani religious parties are supporting this process of Talibanization. I do not want to name them. I think this is a part of their political agenda and they do not condemn terrorism openly.” Corps Commander Peshwer Lt Gen Safdar Hussain the News July 10, 2005.
“Pakistani Government is deceiving the US and the West by helping militants enter Afghanistan from Waziristan. Government should reveal the identity of the infiltrators and explain its reasons for launching these people into Afghanistan. These men are being
Moved from Waziristan to military training camps in Mansehra before being sent into Afghanistan.” Maulana Fazlur Rehman Opposition leader national assembly and senior
Religious parties alliance MMA leader, daily TIMES .
“Army will soon oust Musharaf” Qazi Hussain Ahmad Leader Jamat-I-Islami.
These statements reflect the sentiments of different factions of the state. The infighting is very visible among the different factions. Despite having these frictions, the military generals still have strong grip on economy and politics. The civilian politicians have shown their inability to fight against military domination and put a serious challenge to military intervention in politics and economy. The only class which has always takes on the military dictators is working class. It is the only class, which can end the political and economic domination of the army.
Mullah and Military Alliance
Mullahs have close ties with Military Generals. Both working closely to keep the present status quo in order. Right wing religious Islamic parties have long history to work with state and serve the interests of ruling elite. All the main religious political parties serve the ruling elite in different periods according to the situation and requirement. During the Afghan war the Jamat-i- Islami was used by General Zia. During the second term of Benazir Bhutto, the Jamiat ulmai Islam was used to form Taliban to capture Kabul. Both the main components of MMA JUI-f and JI are still helping the Musharaf to retain the power. They use Islamic rhetoric to hide their corruption and pro military policies. They are also using anti American rhetoric and slogans to get support from the masses. The present political set up under the military umbrella could never have been able to sustain
So long without the support of the religious alliance MMA. Musharaf regime has facilitated them to become friendly opposition.
Musharaf regime started clamp down against some hardliner Islamic groups after London Blasts. Nearly 700 activists have been arrested, belonging to different groups. This is not a first operation of this sort, same operation and clamp down was started after the Sept 11. Few groups were banned, but they continued their open activities under the nose of the government freely. Now this regime once again giving the impression that it wants to root out fundamentalism, which is not true. Musharaf regime want to control the religious right. They do not want to crush them. Even if Musharaf wants to crush them, he will not be able to do that because the extreme right wing nationalist faction within the state will oppose that. Jamat-i- Islami represents that nationalist religious right faction.
Despite having this alliance, there are differences on some issues, which can sharp these contradictions between liberal and extreme right wing faction. The main contention is Kashmir and friendly relations with India. Musharaf regime is under enormous pressure from Imperialist powers to solve this problem to end hostility between two neighboring nuclear states. Musharaf has taken u turn on Kashmir policy which is not acceptable to hardliners. The other matter of contention is the departure of Musharaf regime from the two decade old state policy of promoting Jihad and extreme ideas on Islamic teachings.
Many training camps have been closed down and open recruitment campaigns have been banned, which have develop wide spread anger among the Jihadi organizations. These Islamic armed fundamentalist groups enjoyed the state funding, training and all sort of patronage for more than two decades since 1977. Some of these groups physically want to eliminate Musharaf . General Musharaf has been forced to change almost all the state policies, which were promoting the Jihadi culture. The differences also exist on Afghan policy. But both the groups know that all out fight between them will weaken their control over state machine and severely hurt their interests. That is why they are avoiding head on collation. But they are involved in dangerous proxy war.
Peace Process and Arms Race
Pakistan and India both are saying that the peace process between them is irreversible, but the arms race have intensified at the same time. Generals are happy with this situation at the both sides, Peace and increased defense expenditures are the ideal for the generals.
Normal relations mean no war and military tensions and increased defense budget means more money for their high living standards and expensive arms deals, which are very attractive for the generals on both sides. Americans are playing important role in this peace process and arms race. Resumption of military aid to Pakistan after a decade long hiatus. Domestically, this gives the generals a chance to play up jingoistic sentiments. India has signed a 10 year defense pact with America. Both the countries will also get F-16 fighters from America. Pakistan tested its first cruise missile on 11th August , which has capacity to deliver nuclear warheads with “pin point accuracy” at a distance of 500km. President general Musharaf made no secret of the fact that the missile was India –specific and alluded to the imbalance that had been created by India’s decision to acquire Patriotic missiles from the US. The test made a mockery of the high-profile announcement of a week ago that the two countries would warn each other before test launches. A Pakistani spokesman tamely said, “We are only supposed to give pre-warning for ballistic missiles”. The arms race between India and Pakistan is a double- barreled one, with one barrel containing conventional warheads and the other barrel nuclear warheads. Some existing missiles can hit targets at a distance of 2000 km. India will shortly best this range by test-firing a missile with 3000 km range. India is working on a intercontinental range missile that could hit places as far away as Los Angeles. Pakistani scientists are busy working on extending the range and accuracy of their missiles. The 18th month old “composite dialogue” between the two countries has given the perfect cover for their increased military expenditures. There is no sign that these peace overtures have slowed down the arms race. Pakistan increased its military spending by 15%in its latest budget, about double the rate of growth of the economy. It plans to spend $ 3.75 billion this fiscal year. India increased its military spending by 7.7%, which follows an increase of 27% in previous budget. It plans to spend$19 billion this fiscal year. The two countries, among the poorest in the world, are spending some $23 billion annually. These costs are even higher when evaluated in purchasing-power-parity(PPP)terms. India spends $100 billion in ppp terms, which makes it the third largest military spender in the globe.
Islamabad and New Dehli have commited their nations to a fruitless arms race, ensuring the continued impoverishment of their masses. More dangerously, it carries within itself the seeds of a horrific conflict. For example , the $3 billion that Pakistan will spend on 75 F-16s could be used to improve the quality of life of millions who live below the poverty line. The government could build some 8000 primary health care units and new 100000 village schools, double the budgetary allocation for higher for higher education and health and increase the number of cement plants and sugar mills by 50%.
But it is possible in the capitalist system. It raises the question to change this rotten system, and to transform the society on Socialist lines. Workers democracy and planned economy will provide the basis to wipe out the poverty, exploitation and unemployment.
Political Situation
Military continues to dominate the political scene in Pakistan. The generals have the final say in all the main issues and policy making. They are using the parliament and PML as civilian dress and cover. All the decisions are not made in the cabinet but in the corps commanders meeting. Their economic interests are forcing them to involve heavily and directly in the politics at every level. They are enjoying good support in all the major parties of the country. But this situation will not last long. There is a wide spread disillusionment in the working masses about the military rule. The anger against military domination and control in politics and economy is also on the rise in the working masses.
The attitude and consciousness about the generals in the working class has changed significantly in last few years. The implementation of the vicious anti working class policies of the IMF and World Bank has played an important part in this change. The overwhelming majority of working class is against the policy of privatization. The unemployment, rising poverty, price hike and fast increasing inflation has made the situation worst for the working masses. All the political parties are willing to work with the generals. Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) is more than keen to make agreement with generals to share the power with them. PPP is no more interested in the problems of working class. PPP has completely transformed itself into a capitalist party. MMA occasionally use anti American rhetoric and slogans to keep their support intact. All the parties has same economic programme including PPP and MMA. They all want to implement the same policies of privatization, retrenchments, and free market economy dictated by Imperialist International financial institutions to super exploit the working masses. All the capitalist parties have betrayed them and that has created a situation in which they are not taking keen and active part in the politics. The consciousness is very complex. There is wide spread hate and anger against the present system. There will be hardly few people which have hopes with present repressive capitalist and feudal system. But there are not clear alternative ideas. There are also wide spread disappointment towards existing main steam political parties and clear mistrust also exist.
There is no working class alternative at the moment. Such alternate can attract a whole layer of the working class, which seeking an alternative. Specially advance layers of workers are really looking towards an alternative. Now a thin layer of youth and students are also interested in socialism. There is a big vacuum on the left. Socialist Movement has a very small forces compare to this big vacuum. But big opportunities lie ahead for SMP to become a major force in the politics. SMP has to play a leading and key role to build the working class alternative. SMP showed this potential during the PTCL srike, even having small forces, it played key role to organize this struggle. It will not take very long for the working class to come back on the political scene and rise to over through the rotten capitalist and feudal system, to transform the semi capitalist, feudal and tribal society of Pakistan.