Imran Khan and Dr Qadri have started their respective freedom and revolution march from Lahore to Islamabad to force the government to resign and to bring the famous change to make ‘new Pakistan’ and to bring Qadri revolution in the country. The start of the both marches and correctly saying rallies in Lahore are not impressive. There was not more than couple of thousand people around the marches. Both Imran and Qadri spend hours and hours on the Lahore streets in the anticipation and hope that more people might turn up.
Imran Khan was hopeful that his party will be able mobilize one hundred thousand motorbikes for his march. His target was to mobilize more than two hundred thousand people from Lahore to travel with him to Islamabad. But there was only couple of hundred motor bikes in his march in Lahore. The police and independent sources claimed that there were only 6500 people in his march. This is obviously disappointing for Imran Khan and his party. How many more will join him on the way to Islamabad is yet to be seen.
The main purpose of both marches is to bring down the right wing government of Nawaz sharif and replace it with another right wing government of either Imran Khan or Dr.Qadri. Now the question is whether 15000 or 20000 people can force the government to resign without the intervention of the military establishment. The history shows us that military always intervene directly or indirectly when the situation becomes violent and bloody. The protesters can not force the government to resign with out resorting to violence and creating ugly scenes in the federal capital. It is crystal clear that Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is not going to resign just on the basis of demands. He will not voluntarily walk away without a fight. It is more than just a political battle; the government’s unresolved tension with the generals over Musharraf’s treason trial and a host of other issues will also matter in the endgame.
PML-N government might seem in murky waters but it is not yet a dead horse. According to the latest surveys and Gallup polls PML-N is still the most popular party in the country. Nawaz Sharif is still more popular than Imran Khan. Despite all the weaknesses and making all the blunders, this government is not fully discredited among the masses. It is still enjoying the support among the certain sections of the society.
Yet it is not the end of the road for the Nawaz government. There are still a few options left for the troubled prime minister to regain the lost political space. His biggest political capital is the party’s absolute majority in the National Assembly that he has yet to put into action. A major problem for premium Nawaz is his utter disregard for parliament. His rare appearances in the House and inability to initiate debate on major policy issues has rendered parliament ineffective and increased his isolation.
It took a long time for Sharif to embrace the other major parties represented in parliament and that too came when the chips were down. Inviting political leaders to the national security meeting to discuss the North Waziristan military operation may be a positive move.
Nawaz may be down, but he is not out of the game yet. It is neither a 1993 nor a 1999 situation when he lost the power struggle. But the wrong moves could land him into the same situation. It is not just the issue of facing up to the challenge thrown by the Qadri-Imran combine, the survival of Nawaz government mainly depends on how the government will deal with the protesters. The use of brute force and escalating violence will further weaken the government and might become justification for another military intervention.
Now the most important question is whether the military establishment wanted to intervene directly or indirectly to defuse the situation or to take advantage of the situation to take power. In last 6 years, the military got some opportunities to take power or to remove the PPP government but it avoided to take power. The military intervened in directly or behind the scenes to protect its interests and to keep the domination over the civilian government on many issues.
The military refrained itself from direct intervention and continue to play dominating behind the scenes. This policy called the Kiani doctrine in the name of ex army chief general Kiani. It seems that the military top brass is still continuing with this doctrine. The army has limited options to deal the situation. At the moment the army is watching the events as spectators. The army’s role of a silent spectator depends on two things: the sheer number of marchers and the intensity of violence. If the numbers are huge and the violence is intense, then it would be forced to move from a silent spectator to an interventionist force.
The politicians have handed all their cards over to the generals and now it is up to them to play the cards the way they want. The generals seem to be holding back and letting the politicians fight it out. The sober scenario will be when the dueling politicians settle their disputes without the military’s intervention. Its intervention can take one of the three forms. One, as a referee to strike deal between battling politicians; two, indirect rule force the government to resign and bring in interim government of hand picked technocrats; three, direct rule.
It is most likely that the military might be forced to act as a referee. It can make Nawaz lose some but not all and make Imran Khan gain some. The general mood in the masses and in the society is not in favour of direct military intervention. All the major political parties in the country are opposing such intervention. According to the latest Gallup poll 67% people in the country is against military intervention and in favour of democratic rule. Only 22% supported such intervention. The higher judiciary is not in the mood to accept such intervention and to provide the legal cover and legitimacy to such an act. The Supreme Court has already directed all the state institutions and its employees not to involve in any illegal and extra- constitutional act. The deadly nexus between army and the superior judiciary was finally broken in 2007.
The political, social and economic crises will not go away or wither away until the capitalist system is not abolished. Capitalism is the system of crises. One crisis after the other will emerge and continue to suffer the already impoverished lives of millions of working class people and poor. The change of faces either through elections or through the agitation is not going to solve the problems faced by the working masses. One repressor will be replaced by the other. One exploiter will be replaced with another.
Mass revolutionary class struggle of the working class and peasantry on a radical socialist program is needed to overthrow this system of crisis. The midterm elections and technocratic government is not the solution of the political crisis. The formation of the democratic government of the workers and peasants will solve the political crisis. The present situation demands radical change and social revolution which only working class can bring on a revolutionary socialist program. Mass revolutionary party of the working class needed to perform this historic task. Unfortunately such revolutionary party and movement is non existence at the moment. It is the responsibility of the socialists to continue the struggle for the formation of such party. Socialist Movement is indulge in the struggle on daily basis to fulfill this historic task.