Stand off continues as both sides stick to their positions
No political solution in sight
The PTI and PAT sit-in entered into 8th day in Islamabad. The PTI and PAT have put forward their demands to the government. PTI has put forward six demands and PAT put forward ten demands. First three demands of the both parties are the same and that is the resignation of the prime minister, dissolution of the assemblies and formation of the technocrats’ government. Both parties have said that the stated that the starting point of the dialogue with the government will be the resignation of the prime minister. The government has made it clear that it will not accept this demand and prime minister will not resign. So the political deadlock and stalemate is continued and the negotiated political settlement is not in sight.
The military has issued first public statement asking both side to involve in meaningful dialogue and peaceful settlement of the present crisis. It seems that the military has not yet decided to intervene decisively in the crisis. If the military decided to intervene, it is most likely that this intervention might be an indirect one instead of direct one. But if the standoff dragged on for the longer period than the military will be forced to intervene directly or indirectly to break the deadlock.
Both parties launched their marches from Lahore on 14th August 2014 and reached Islamabad on 15th. Both the parties announced to bring one million people each to Islamabad to bring down the government. But PAT of Dr. Qadri brings out around thirty thousand and PTI of Imran Khan bring out between fifteen to twenty thousand people. These figures also include the large number of paid male and female protesters in both sit-in. According to our own eyewitness reports male and female paid participants sign roll twice a day to get the money. This is a new phenomenon in the Pakistani politics.
It is a well known secret in Pakistan that major political parties and NGOs pay money to poor males and females to bring them to their rallies and protests. But it is the first time that political parties have paid money to the people to sit in the sit-in. But it does not mean that the die hard members of the both parties are not participating. They are their in big numbers.
Both processions and sit-ins gave different out look. The PTI procession or so called march were mainly consists of expensive land cruisers and cars but on the other hand the PAT procession was consists of vans and buses. The PTI participants from Punjab mainly belong to the urban rich and upper middle class and rural feudal lords and big landlords. But its participants from KPK province mainly belong to the urban and rural poor. On the other hand PAT participants mainly belong to the lower middle class and urban poor. There is one more class difference in both sit-in.
The most of the participants of PTI are staying in five and four star hotels of the federal capital. There are hardly any rooms available in the most expensive hotels, government and private guest houses and motels. That is why the PTI camp give deserted look during the day times and people started to come in the evening when temperatures started to drop. But on the other hand the PAT participants remain in their camp spent time on the road. The PTI leaders spent nights with protesters making speeches and dance on the famous music tunes but retreat to their palaces and comfortable farm houses during the hot days.
Both sit-ins spend first four days on the two parallel roads of the capital just outside the red zone. But on fifth day both PTI and PAT entered into red zone and continued their sit-ins in front of the parliament house on the constitution avenue which is also considered as nerve center of the government. The main government offices, diplomatic enclave and the Supreme Court building are also located in this area. The protesters are occupying the main road which connects these offices and buildings. The situation was very tense when the protesters started to enter into the red zone.
There was around thirty thousand police and paramilitary personnel to defend the red zone. But the government at the last moment decided to give permission to protesters. This avoided the possible clash between security forces and the protesters. Both leaders are saying that they will not go away without the resignation of the prime minister. But this is not going to happen just through this sit-in of few thousand people.
Government strengthen its position
The government has strengthened its position in last few days. The government was shaky, confused and worried just before the marches and sit-ins started and in the first few days of sit-in. The government was nervous and worried that if the PTI and PAT were able to bring big number of people in Islamabad than it might be forced to make big concessions to the both parties. But PTI failed to bring in the impressive numbers and failed to put necessary and enough pressure to put government into jeopardy. The demands put forward by the both parties and the speeches made in the sit-ins by the both leaders have forced the major political parties to support the government.
All the parties represented in the parliament excluding PTI now standing behind the government and asked the prime minister not to resign. It seems that the military has not yet withdrawn its support from the government. The lawyers, journalists and civil society organizations are supporting the civilian rule and continuation of the democratic process. The government has also won sympathy for not using the brute state power against the protesters. It is first time in the history of the country that such anti government protest has not yet met with the baton charge or tear gas shelling.
The government has gained strength against the PTI and PAT. But it might be forced to concede some powers to the military for its continued support. The Nawaz government might surrender its resistance on the foreign policy issues like Afghanistan and India. If the government survived with the help of the military than it will emerge out of the crisis much weaker and more submissive to the military. It is most likely that whether the military intervene or not it will emerge once again as the most powerful player in the power game. The civilian government will have to pay the price.
Isolated and desperate
Imran Khan and his party have become completely isolated and desperate. He finds himself in a blind alley. He is desperately looking for a way out but finds nothing. He wanted a face saving which the government is not offering him. His sit-in has virtually becomes a music concert at the night in which leading pop singers provide free entertainment. When he launched his march on 14th August he never thought that he will face such situation. But he can not blame others for this situation than himself. He has made some serious mistakes in last two weeks. First, he miscalculated his own strength and the general mood in the society.
There was no serious effort made to contact the general public and masses. No mass contact campaign was made. Imran Khan completely relied on the parliamentarians and office bearers of his party to bring the people in the march. Imran Khan believed those media persons who were the opinion that the masses are just waiting for him and PML-N government is so unpopular that his call for agitation will attract hundreds of thousands of people. But it did not happen and he could only muster the support of only few thousand people which is far below from his expectations.
There is no doubt that the PML-N government is not very popular among the masses. There is discontent in the layers of the population but this discontent and unpopularity has not turned into hatred. There are layers even in the working class and poor that still wanted to give some more time to the government. Second, Imran Khan made rigging and election fraud as its main slogan and demand instead of raising the issues that is directly affecting the lives of the working masses. The issue of rigging in the elections might be a major concern and demand within the PTI but it not the case with the masses. Many on the streets are raising the question that why PTI has launched the agitation against the rigging after fifteen months of the elections.
If the elections were rigged to the extent as PTI claims than why it formed the provincial government in KPK province and remained part of the national parliament? Why PTI decided to go ahead with its march and sit-in when the government accepted its two main demands regarding the electoral reforms and to investigate the rigging allegations. There is general perception that Imran Khan is not interested and serious to bring the radical reforms in the power structure but wanted to grab power like the other traditional politicians in the country.
This perception has spread and deepens in last few days. Even some his own supporters have started to raise questions regarding his real motives. If the PML-N government has failed to impress the masses so is the provincial government of PTI in KPK province.
Third, Imran khan has constantly changed his stance and demands in last few weeks. When he demanded the electoral reforms and investigations into the rigging allegations, the overwhelming majority of the political parties, academia, intelligentsia, media and most politically conscience layers of the society supported these demands. The government was seems isolated and shaky.
This pressure forces the government to concede on these demands. But since than, Imran Khan has changed his stance and made the resignation of the prime minister his main demand. He has lost support of all these segments of the society and felt isolated. The main news channels were firmly behind the PTI but now the situation has changed rapidly. These channels were busy ridiculing the government and anti government sentiments were running high in the media. Now most of these news channels are questioning the PTI tactics.
The capitalist politicians and capitalist democracy has once again exposed themselves before the working class and poor. The whole capitalist system has showed its weaknesses to the working masses. It has become clear that the ruling classes fight and unite for their own interests. The political, social and economic crises will not go away or wither away until the capitalist system is not abolished. Capitalism is the system of crises. One crisis after the other will emerge and continue to suffer the already impoverished lives of millions of working class people and poor.
The change of faces either through elections or through the agitation is not going to solve the problems faced by the working masses. One repressor will be replaced by the other. One exploiter will be replaced with another. Mass revolutionary class struggle of the working class and peasantry on a radical socialist program is needed to overthrow this system of crisis. The midterm elections and technocratic government is not the solution of the political crisis.
The formation of the democratic government of the workers and peasants will solve the political crisis. The present situation demands radical change and social revolution which only working class can bring on a revolutionary socialist program. Mass revolutionary party of the working class needed to perform this historic task. Unfortunately such revolutionary party and movement is non existence at the moment. It is the responsibility of the socialists to continue the struggle for the formation of such party. Socialist Movement is indulge in the struggle on daily basis to fulfill this historic task.