The political, economic and social crisis has further deepened. The infighting among the different sections of ruling classes and state institutions has intensified. Tensions between civilian government, judiciary and military establishment are running high. Economic and social crisis has reached to the new heights. The objective situation has become more complex and contradictory. The indifference towards politics has increased and working masses showing little interest in the political process. The most politically active layer in the society is the middle class.The educated urban middle class layer of professional youth and students is active in right wing political party of Imran Khan called PTI. This layer is very modern and liberal in its outlook and social life but holds petty boursoie right wing political ideas, the mixture of religion and liberal thoughts. The PPP led coalition government has almost completed its tenure of five of years in office. The next general elections are due between March and May next year. The present government will be the first civilian government to complete its constitutional tenure. PPP leadership considers this as a big achievement. But the working masses has suffered badly in last five years as the government miserably failed to solve any fundamental problem faced by the working masses. This government widely considered as the worst government in the history of Pakistan. The PPP government simply failed to govern the country and set worst examples of bad governance.
PPP government got opportunity to take back some space encroached by the military establishment over the years, but PPP lost this opportunity. When PPP came into power in 2008 than the military establishment was on the retreat because of General Musharaf’s nine years of misrule. The military lost much of its public support which it enjoys over the years. Its reputation was damaged. Military leadership was forced to retreat and withdraw military officers from civilian posts. This situation created the vacuum which PPP government failed to fill.
The judiciary stepped in to fill this vacuum and started to challenge both the government and the military establishment. The Supreme Court started to notices on issues of corruption and human rights violations. The superior judiciary also strikes down the legislations which were introduced to protect the rulers. Both the government and the military establishment started to feel the heat. The Supreme Court persuaded the issue of missing persons and forced the intelligence agencies to release the illegally abducted people in the country. Now both the civilian and military bureaucracy and ruling politicians are alleging that the superior judiciary is directly intervening and interfering in their sphere.
Judiciary was the traditional ally of the military establishment since the independence in 1947. The judiciary validated all the military takeovers and deviations from the constitutional rule. But this started to change when the present Supreme Court was restored in 2009 with massive public support. Lawyers and opposition political parties organized long march led by PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif in which hundreds of thousands took part and forced the government to restore the 60 judges of superior courts ousted by military dictator General Musharaf in November 2007. The judiciary has since emerged as an important player. Both government and military establishment find it difficult to adjust in this new situation. Now problem with the military is that if it impose military rule in the country than it will need the help of the judiciary to get validation which seems unlikely at the present.
Even though military establishment has taken some space back which it surrendered after the ouster of General Musharaf in 2008 and without any doubt it is the most powerful state institution in the country. Military still controls the foreign policy and call the shots in politics. It has succeeded to improve its public image and now again enjoys public support which it lost during the Musharaf regime. The military establishment is not seems interested to directly intervene and install a new military regime. The current political and economic situation is so volatile and unstable that military rule will make situation even worst. They wanted to continue the present policy to call the shots from behind the scenes and let the government take the blame.
The current situation is not favourable for the military takeover. It will face opposition not only from the opposition parties, judiciary and vibrant media but also from masses. Military is already involved in the battles in the tribal areas and Swat. Paramilitary forces are engaged in volatile Baluchistan and bleeding Karachi. The military takeover will only make things more worst and will not do any better. This situation helped the weak and unpopular PPP government to remain in the power. For a possible military takeover, the military will need help and cooperation for judiciary and main opposition party PML-N. But both are openly opposing such move and on many occasions declared to resist such act. So at present the military take over is less likely but it can not fully rules out. The military establishment is under immense pressure from the recent Supreme Court decisions in which SC declared that the involvement of the intellegence agencies in the elections and political process is illegal and unconsitutional. Supreme Court also ordered the military to close down political cell in the ISI. SC has also taken up some other issues relating to the corruption of some ex generals. The private TV news channels are widely debating these issues. The military Generals never face such situation before.
It is most likely that a hung parliament will come into being after the next general elections. No political party will be able to get the required 172 seats in the parliament to form the government. PML-N a centre right party of ex Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif might emerge as the largest party but short of simple majority to form its own government. It is most likely that another coalition government will replace the present one. Three way contest is likely in the next general elections. PPP led alliance, PML-N led alliance and PTI led alliance. There are hardly any differences on the economic policies of all the main political parties. They all support free market economy, privatization, neo liberal economic policies and more restrictions on trade union rights.
Latest surveys and opinion polls are showing that PML-N is still the most popular party in the country. Imran Khan led PTI is on second spot and PPP is on third place. The gape between PML-N and ruling PPP is now more than double. PPP is now mainly relying on PTI in hope that it will divide the right wing vote of PML-N and will help PPP to retain its seats. According to these opinion polls, PPP might be able to get majority in Sindh province but with the reduced majority. In other three provinces PPP is lagging far behind the PML-N. On the other hand PML-N is leading in three provinces but lagging behind PPP in Sindh province. Imran Khan led PTI is popular among the youth in the urban cities of Punjab and enjoys support among the most right wing and conservative pro –Taliban voters in Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa province in the north of the country. Middle and uppermiddle class urban youth is supporting PTI to end potical hegemony of the PPP and PML-N and to bring radical change in the country.
The right wing political parties are dominating the political scene at the moment. 4 out of 5 largest political parties in Pakistan are right wing parties. PPP is no more a left wing or even a secular party so that means there is not a single left wing party in the main steam at the moment. One finds it difficult to see any big differences even on the social issues between PPP and PML-N. PPP has gone further to the right to impease the right wing voters. It will not be wrong to say that right wing is dominationg and even continue to grow. Left is marganlised in the society at the present and almost become irrelevant in the current situation. The six largest religious political parties are trying to form an alliance to unite the most conservative and religious vote. The same religious political parties formed the alliance in 2002 called MMA, which contested the elections and won more than 50 seats in parliament and also formed provincial government in Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa province (formerly known as NWFP). They will not be able to repeat the success of 2002 but can made some gains in certain areas. It is not clear yet that how many parties will join this alliance. This alliance can badly hurt the vote bank of PTI in some areas.
Religious extremism and intolerance is on the rise. The religious sentiments are runing very high. The religious right has used the Anti Islam Blasphemous film issue to provoke the religios sentiments.. Religious parties and extremist forces used these issues to spread their extremist ideas and hate campaigns. Recently in our area a private school was attacked and set on fire by some local religious groups. These groups alleged that one school female teacher used blaspemous words in an essay that was given out to the students. The teacher and owner of the school was arrested and school was closed down. Religious related attacks and blasphemy allegations are alarmingly on rise and discourage any meaningful discussions or intelectual debates on certain social and religious issues. It has become norm for the religious leaders and groups to use the blasphemy issue to silent any opposition voice. Last week a nine grade school student was arrested on the blasphemy charges.
Taliban and other reactionary religious extremists groups are continuing with suicide bombings and targeted attacks against security forces and ordinary people. The sectarian killings have also increased in last few years. Armed religious extremist groups linked with Taliban and Al-Qaeda are targetting the Shia’s in the different parts of the country.
The Baluchistan is still burninig. On the one hand armed nationalist groups are waging war against the security forces and non Baluchis living in Baluchistan. On the other hand Taliban and other sectarian religious extremists groups are waging war against Hazara Shia’s in Quetta. The issue of missing political activists of Baluch nationalist parties and student wings is still unresolved . Nationalists alleges that hundreds of their members have been abducted by the security forces and many have been killed so far. It is impossible for non Baluchs to go the certain areas of Baluchistan. When PPP came into power, there was a hope that situation might improve and political solution of Baluchistan might be possible. But nothing has changed in 5 years. The sense of depriviation, repression, alienation and anger has increased among the youth. The continued state repression has failed to end the armed struggle.
Karachi is continue to bleed. The city of 20 million people and the largest port in the country and also the industrial and commercial hub of the country is in the grip of unending terror and violence. In last ten months alone more than 1700 people have been killed. Different political, ethnic and religious groups are fighting with each other to controll the certain areas of the city. MQM, ANP and PPP are fighting to control the city with the help of criminal gangs and their own armed wings. They are killing each other to keep their dominance.
Taliban groups and other religious extremist groups are also strengthening their position in Karachi. Some 18000 to 22000 taliban fighters have already organised in the city. Karachi is now the largest base for the taliban fighters outside the tribal areas. The government officials accept the presence of taliban fighters in the city but put the numbers around 9000. In some Pashtun areas of Karachi, the taliban has been able to establish their control and they have closed down the offices of political parties in these areas.
The inflation is still high. Prices of food items and essentials are continued to rise. In last four years the prices of electricity, gas, petrol, food and other daily use items have more than doubled. Transport fares and rent of the houses have also been hiked. The severe energy crisis has not only crippled the industries and commercial activities but also severly affected the daily life. More than 0.5 million workers have been made unemployed in last two years just in textiles sector due to the energy crisis. More than 560 factories closed down in last three years. The industrialists and businessmen are migrating from the country and shifting their industries and businesses to the other countries of the region. The corruption is striving and black economy is now equalent of the real economy. The export is falling and imports are rising. The currency is continued a free fall against dollar and other currencies. The unemployment is rising as both private and public sector hardly generating new jobs. The law and order situation is getting worse by every passing day. Armed robberies, street crimes and kidnapping for the ransome has increased many folds. Crimes against women such as rape, acid throwing, domestic violence and honour killings have also increased.
Trade union movement is very weak and almost collapsed. According to the latest figures only 4% workers are members of the the legal unions. If we include the membership of illegal unions and workers associations than the figure goes up to 9%. The situation in private sector is even more worse. Less than 1% industrial workers are members of the trade unions. In most cases, the registered trade unions in factories and workplaces are pocket unions and only exists in papers. Mostly the close relatives of the factory owners and businessmen are the union leaders. Overwhelming majority of Trade union leaders have completely capitulated with the capitalists and state machinery. They are not intrested in organising the struggles and also workers at the workplace. There are hardly any new unions formed in the private sector. The betrayals of the leadership has demoralised the workers. Most of the recent struggles and strikes were organised from the below. The leadership has lost the trust of the workforce. Most of the union leaders are still living in the 1980s when there was the big public sector industries employing thousands of workers in each industry. Now all these industries have been closed down after the privatisation and 0.6 million industrial workers lost their jobs in the process. The trade union movement fialed to adapt to the new situation which emerged after the privatisation in 1990sand 2000s. It is difficult to find young trade union leaders and activists in the movement. The layer of trade union activists continued to shrink over the past many years. The Left as a political identity has collapsed in the trade union movement. Some left organisations played important role in the ideological confusion of the workers and very important layer of the activists. They convince them to abandon the Socialism and embrace the capitalist ideas. The Left union leaders abandoned the tradition of struggle and capitulated with capitalists. Left still exist in the labour movement but not as a dominating force as it was in 1960s 1970s.