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A storm in the tea cup or beginning of the end?

The Nawaz government is in the middle of another political storm. The present political crisis triggered by the Panama Leaks once again exposed the weak and fragile nature of the democratic process and civilian rule. Just before the present political crisis started to unfold, the Nawaz government was sailing through the calm waters without facing much resistance from weak and fragmented opposition and any other serious challenge. But now the situation has changed since the Panama Papers leaks revealed that two sons of prime minister Nawaz sharif owns offshore companies in Panama. It seems that the government once again entered into rough waters. The question is whether it will be able to survive this time like the previous occasions in three and half years of its rule or ousted by a popular mass revolt led by Imran Khan. At the moment, no bourgeois opposition party is in a position to oust the present government through a massive protest movement. It is not the strength of the government which enable it to survive instead it is the weakness of the opposition forces which allows the government to see off many crises. The bourgeois opposition parties have so far failed to mobilize the working masses against the government because they are not agitating or campaigning on the issues faced by the working masses. The opposition parties are interested only in the issues which concerned them. The issues of poverty, hunger, appalling economic and social conditions, unemployment and falling living standards never been taken up seriously by the opposition parties. That is why masses are not ready to trust them against the government. This trust deficit between the bourgeois parties and the masses is the main hurdle in the development of a mass protest movement. It seems likely that Nawaz government will be able to survive unless it makes a big political blunder to provoke the military.

The whole issue of corruption, tax evasion and money laundering has came back to the media lime light and public attention. Both sides are busy in hypocritical mudslinging and accusations against each other through the media. The bourgeois politicians and their parties are exposing each other in the eyes of the working masses. This whole debate on the news channels proved once again that all the elite politicians are same and involved in all sorts of corruption and wrong doings. Pakistan’s corrupt and reactionary ruling classes are enriching themselves at the expence of millions of impoverished and poor people. PTI leader Imran khan has announced to launch a protest movement and sit in in front of the Sharif palace (the Lahore residence of Sharif family) to press the government to initiate independent and impartial inquiry and investigation into the allegations against Nawaz family.

Imran khan was looking for an issue to launch protest movement against the government since he was forced to call off his months long sit in and protest rallies in December 2014. He finally got this opportunity and now wanted to capitilise on it. The million dollar question is whether he can generate such massive protest movement against the government needed to destabilize it to the extent that it will be forced to resign or create such a caos that the military will be forced to intervene and throw out the government. Both scenarios seems less likely at the moment as the events shown in 2014. One factor is that Imran Khan is not as popular as he was in 2013-14. He has lost support of some very important sections of middle class. Since January 2015, PTI has lost 14 out 16 by-elections it contested in Punjab and in Karachi. Its vote bank in Karachi has signifantly been reduced. The party organisation is weak and divided among different factions. PTI is not in the position to generate such movement to overthrow the government. The other factor is key and decisive in this situation. The mood and role of the military establishment will determine the final outcome of this crisis. The track record of the present army chief shows that he does not want to overthrow the government or intervene in a manner to pave the way for the new elections. If the army decided to intervene decisively to oust the government and to hold fresh elections than it might get the support of the main opposition parties and religious parties for such action. The situation is not favorable for a direct military rule. Military establishment knows that such a move will further deteriorate the economy and catastrophic economic and social conditions could provoke a mass revolt from the masses. They also fear that their failure to improve the economic and social conditions of the masses will expose them and they will loose credibility and authority amonagst the masses and middle classes. If the military forced to intervene than it will like to maneuver behind the scenes and will install a civilian technocrat government under the military umberrilla than to impose martial law or direct military rule. Military might take such action if the situation started to get out of control. The military is enjoying all sort of powers and privileges at the moment under the weak civilian government. The military infact controls everything from foreign policy to domestic policies. There are some differences between the military and the Nawaz government but it is still not reached at dangerous level that might cause fatal collision.

Imran Khan knows that he might not be able to force the government to resign but wants to build the momentum lead up to the general elections in 2018. He wants to recapture the ground that he lost during and after the sit in. He knows that without gaining momentum, he has no chance to win the next elections.

The Nawaz government has been weak and seems to be at back foot on one issue after the other. The regime is faced with attacks from one section of  media which continued to run vicious propaganda campaign to undermine the government, other bourgeois politicians, some religious parties and increased tensions within the PML-N. One faction is led by Nawaz Sharif and the other is led by his younger brother and Chief Minister Punjab Shahbaz sharif. Shahbaz Sharif considered closer to the military establishment. But both the brothers never fall out with eacher openly in public. There are lot of rumours are running around about the differences in the Sharif family on the issue of Panama leakes. It is most unlikely that younger brother revolted against the eleder and force him to resign in the short term. Nawaz Sharif still holds the comfortable majority in the parliament and without a big revolt within the ruling party it is not possible to remove him and bring in house change parliament.

This is another power struggle between the different factions of the corrupt and parasitic elite. They are fighting with each other to safeguard and further their interests. The working class as a political force yet not entered into the political arena. Once the working class started to move and express itself in the political arena through a mass movement than it will be the beginning of the end not only for the government but the exploitative and repressive system as a whole.

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