Timid Reforms will not solve the deep political crises
The religious hardliners have won the local bodies elections in Saudi Arabia, held in three phases from February to April 2005. The western media and commentators have
Applauded the election as a historic occasion and great step forward in the direction of
Democracy in oil rich Kingdom. The response in Saudi Arabia was completely different.
Only 40% eligible people registered as voters. The turn out was very low in all the big cities. According to the state television the turn out was 31% in capital Riyadh, 29% in
Commercial capital Jeddah. In Jeddah only 20 % eligible voters were registered as voters.
Womens were not allowed to vote in these elections, which itself explains the nature of democracy, in which almost 50% population has no right to participate. Majority of the
Population, specialy youth shows no interest in these elections, because for them this is
Useless exercise and will not make any significant change or difference. The election was
Held on the 600 seats of 178 municipal councils and rest of the 600 seats will be nominated by the King.
The clerics-backed candidates have came on top in Meddina , Mecca, Tabuk, Taef and other cities and towns. The well known religious leaders and clerics put their own candidates but themselves did not take part in the elections. The radicals did less well in
Al Qassim, a region some 300 kilometers north of capital Riyadh seen as the heartland of the Wahabi faith. They won just 2 seats and remaining 5 seats went to technocrats and businessmen in regional capital Buraida and in Unaiza they only won one seat from 5.
According to lawyer Abdul Aziz al Kassem “ The winners can be considered moderates,
More open than the official religious establishment and the Wahhabi currents , they are
Technocrats and business men with religious leanings, which are against to change the
Religious state to make it more liberal.”
According to the pro government daily Arab news based in Jeddah “ the election results are unexpected for both government and militant groups. The winners are western educated radicals , opposed to militancy and liberalism and want to keep Saudi Arabia as
Islamic country , but want more share in the running of government through elections. They are not a party because it is illegal to form a party , but still they are very closely netted with each other nationally and will become a sizeable force in future. There are
Different currents among them, but leading colour is Islamic.This the emergence of the
Middle class on the scene.”
Emergence of Middle class
There is no doubt that a new middle class has emerged in last two decades. There are almost one million people educated from western and American colleges and universities.
They are mostly professors , doctors, lawyers, managers, civil servants and business men.
They have shown their strength in the elections, with the wining of 80% seats. This is important development in the tribal dominating society like Saudi Arabia. They have come out of the constraints and confines of traditional tribal politics.Transformed from poverty -stricken desert dwellers to wealthy citizens of modern metropolises within two
Generations. The professors , journalists and academia has increased their influence in last few years among the educated youth. But it will be a mistake to exaggerate their influence in the conservative society, compare to the religious leaders and mullahs. The
Older layer of the middle class is more conservative and pro king than the new layers. The new generation is more liberal and want fast track reforms in the direction of democracy and liberalism, which older generation is opposing. Some frustrated youth also going towards militant organizations and groups. Few are concern about jobs , because there are very few jobs available to the educated youth. In many regions the
Unemployment and poverty has increased in last decade.
There is also strong Arab nationalism is developing among the youth. Many people now
Opposing the presence of immigrant workers in large numbers. They are also demanding to impose ban in certain sectors of economy to employ immigrant workers. The is under
Pressure and trying to reduce the numbers of immigrant workers. The Saudi government
Has announced the plan to cut the number of immigrant workers and will expel 400000
Workers. That means these jobs will go to local people but with more high wages and less skill. It is not easy for Saudi companies to employ local workers instead of foreign
Immigrant workers , which is source of cheap labour and super exploitation. This issue
Will remain to be very important and most debated in the near future.
The Political Divide and Reforms
The local body elections clearly showed the divisions in the society. The different
Currents not only exist but also further developing along with the slow paced process
Of reforms. There are two clear trends , one pressing for wider public freedoms and
Others jealously defending the kingdom ,s Islamic identity against US pressure for reforms. One voter expressed his views in these words “i came to vote for candidates
With an Islamic orientation. And I want this message to reach the United States and all
The west”. One businessmen Aref al Ghamdi said “ There are external pressures to introduce reforms here. Its all in preparation for Americanisation. That’s why I have voted for islamists candidates.”
On the other hand schoolteacher Saleh Abdul Razzaq said “ we want freedom, basic human rights, trade union rights and democracy in our country. We need to have elected
Professional unions, for teachers, doctors, workers and government employs, to uphold
These peoples rights. We also need to be able to demonstrate peacefully”.
One Lawyer said “ We want the Shura council to be elected, that should respect the opinion of our people”.( Arab TV , AFP and DAWN )
The question of reforms has becomes a matter of contention between different currents.
It is just beginning of the long process, which will take many twists and turns. The
Royal family is also divided on the question of reforms. The differences are developing
Between Crown prince Abdullah and the brothers of king Shah Fahad, the older generation of the Royal family want to continue to rule the country with iron hand and
Without giving any sort of concessions to liberals and pro- democracy sections of society.
But new generation want to make some reforms to keep their control over country, which
Now they find to rule it difficult in same old way. According to a senior Saudi official
“ We are battling a campaign of violence by suspected Al-Qaeda militants over the past
Two years, which is a danger to the stability and progress of our country. We do not want
To fight two battles at same time, one with militants and other with pro-democracy reformist movement. Now our strategy is to fight against militants to wipe them out,
And engage the liberals in a process of cautious reforms which is tailored to the domestic
Specifications, and we make it clear to the Americans about our strategy”.
It is clear from these elections that traditional Wahhabi religious hierarchy,which linked
Closely with state has started to loose the control and dominance , they enjoyed for nearly
75 years.The most respected and popular clerics are those , who are not directly linked
With state, and not preaching blind loyalty to rulers, but talking about the responsibilities
Of the rulers towards their people. They are also campaigning on social and political
Issues. The recent verdict given by Some senior clerics in which they allow the womens
To marry with their own will and choice, they also declared the forced marriages unIslamic and inhuman. Few popular clerics also issue decree to give permission
To women for driving cars, which is still not legal .
In the absence of a working class or left alternate, these clerics with the help of more
Moderate islamists can fill the vacuum on the basis of radical social and economic
Programme. They can become popular voice of the Saudi people , who want to change
The present political system. These clerics with the support of the sections of middle class can move on the direction of more radicalization with the Islamic colour.
Liberal Reformist Movement
The reformist movement in Saudi Arabia is facing very difficult period. In 2003 this
Movement was at its hight, and dominated the political scene , but in2004 it was weakened and suffered some serious blows from the combination of different reasons.
The increased high prices of oil, increased violence and militancy from hardliner Islamic
Militant groups, increased state repression and clampdown, and the continued importance
To the regime of Islamic political currents are the main reasons in the fall of liberal reform activism. According to the well knownSaudi journalist Jamal Ghashugi “ the
Issues raised by the reformers, great political participation , the role of the women,
Democratic rights, and constitutional limits on the powers of the Al-Saud , are not going
Away, but at least for now , the house of al-Saud thinks that it does not have to address them.In October 2004, Saudi officials dashed hopes among more liberal sections of society that women would be allowed to vote in the 2005 elections, when cabinet refused
To allow womens to vote. In September last year , in a clear signal that political activism
Has its limits, the cabinet issued the stern reminder that state employees were prohibited
From opposing state policy, even to sign petitions that called for such changes. Given that
The vast majority of Saudis in the labour force work directly for the state, or indirectly
Through state companies, this warning had the effect declaring political activity out of bounds for most Saudis”.
The case of three defendants who refused to participate in their court proceedings in october last year, because they objected to the fact that the presiding judge had ordered
The trial to be closed to the public, after earlier sessions had been open, is seen as representing “ in miniature the dashed hopes of Saudi liberal and moderate Islamists
Reformers over the past year”. Three defendandts were part of a group of 12 activists
Arrested in March for organizing a petition calling for a constitional monarchy and for
Trying to establish an independent human-rights monitoring group. Hundreds of supporter of these men came to hear the proceedings of the court, and they also
Organized demonstration in the support of these arrested activists. Now they are
Facing close door proceeding in the prison.
According to Jamal Ghashugi “ the withering of the Riyadh Spring can be attributed
To a number of factors, but the two most important are the security situation and the
Economic situation.In both cases, a combination of short term success alleviating
Immediate pressures and long term issues that will be more difficult to deal with have
Created the circumstances under which rolling back the tentative liberlisation was a
Plausible strategy for the rulers. The Saudis are enjoying their most lucrative years of oil exports ever. In 2004 the projected deficit turned into 35$ billion surplus,which enable the rulers to announce the new development projects of worth 11 $ billion.There have been steady stream of announcements regarding new labour regulations aimed at
Discouraging employment of foreign workers, opening up job opportunities for nationals
And increasing the participation of Saudi women in the workforce. While the long term prospects of substantial change in the Saudi labour market are uncertain, this new influx of money has given the government confidence that it can deal with the short-term consequences of citizen unemployment in the country, while also greasing the patronage
Wheels that make the Saudi political system work”.
There are many people in Saudi Arabia who has lost the fear of state repression and
Prosecution, no body can stop these people from fighting for there rights. The emerging
Saudi working class has started to realizing its strength.