Political uncertainty persist as the future of MQM hangs in balance

Pakistan is very interesting place for the students of the political science and history. It is the place where political pundits and commentators never sits idle. The politics in Pakistan  keeps you entertained and guessing. The movers and shakers of the politics always continue to surprise you. So it is not easy to build perspective or to perdict how the events will unfold.

No one really thought when MQM supreme leader Altaf Hussain started his telephonic speech that it will dramatically change the situation for the them. No one knows that this speech will make the unthinkable happen within MQM. He made strongly worded anti establishment speech and raised anti Pakistan slogans. He provoked his workers against private TV channels and they attacked ARY News and NEO TV. The MQM workers also tried to attack Geo and Samma TV as well. One person killed and many other injured in this violence. Since then the clouds of uncertainty are looming large over MQM. The establishment went after the MQM and arrested many leaders and activists. The famous 90 (Nine Zero) headquarters of the Mutthaida were closed down by Rangers and several offices in different areas were also closed.

MQM leaders in Karachi came under immense pressure from establishment and media. This situation  forced the leaders of the MQM led by Dr. Farooq Sattar to publically denounce his speech and announced to work independently from Altaf Hussain. Farooq Sattar announced to operate MQM Pakistan from Karachi and also to make all decisions by the leadership within Pakistan. Many political commentators and MQM opponents are raising doubts about these decisions and view it as an effort of damage control.

Altaf Hussain has the history to first target individuals and different state institutions but later tender apology to calm the situation. But this time he completely misread the mood of the establishment. This time around the establishment is not in the mood to pardon him. The establishment thinks that it is the right time to free Karachi from the clutches of Altaf Hussain. They were looking for an opportunity which he provides them and they strike back.  He used his political leverage to make political gains. He used fear of violence and terror to blackmail the respective governments in last three decades. MQM has the long history of love and hate with the establishment. The establishment used MQM to achieve its political interests and in return MQM was given free hand to strengthen its hold and control in Karachi.

It is too early to perdict the exact outcome that may arise from the present situation. The future of MQM still hangs in balance and much depend on the conduct of Altaf Hussain. If he realised the mood of the party leaders and also establishment both political and military, then he might accept the decision of Karachi leadership and paved the way for Farooq Sattar to lead the party. He might do that for a limited period of time and than again try to take back the control of the party. He will not give up the leadership for a long period of time. This is the most tricky question. If the sanity and sense of proportion prevails instead of emotions then Altaf Hussain will allow the Karachi based coordination committee to operate the party from pakistan and refrain himself from making public statements.

There is no doubt that without the silent support of the MQM supremo, the Karachi leadership will not be able to survive. Sooner or later any indication from the London based  leader that he has fall out with Karachi committee will trigger a new crisis in the MQM. The Karachi based leadership clearly knows that that their acceptability to the Muhajir base camp depends on the reactions of Altaf Hussain. He still wields control over his followers. This is why Dr Farooq Sattar did not openly condemn or criticise Altaf Hussain in the press conference. The new leadership needs the name of Bhai to keep control over the Muhajir base camp and his loyalists. The uncertainty prevails in the rank and file of the MQM about the future of their leader based in London. The ordinary sympathisers and voters of the MQM are confused and waiting for clear answers from the leadership.

But if he continues to give his anti establishment bastions and hurling  personal insults at top military leadership then the MQM as a political force will be marginalised and become isolated. It is apparently not acceptable for the establishment to accept MQM led by Altaf Hussain. There are signals that MQM without Altaf Hussain at the fore front is acceptable and can continue to play its political role.

The problem for the Karachi leadership is that they can not openly disassociate themselves from Altaf Hussain and at the same time can not afford to annoyed the establishment. So the future of Bhai of MQM looks bleak at the present moment. Karachi leadership might be forced to quit MQM and form their own party or completely disown Altaf Hussain as MQM Pakistan.

Altaf Hussain may be down but he’s not out yet, and if he decides to fight back, the future of peace in Karachi could hang in the balance. His control over the MQM has weaken in last years but he has not lost full control. He still can create few problems for the Karachi leadership and for law enforcers. It is going to be a long political process before some body can replace him as the leader of MQM to enjoy massive support in the Muhajir communities. This transformation should be through a political process instead of forcing a hand picked  leader from the top. This approach will solve nothing but further complicate the already fragile situation.

The masses in Karachi wants peace, prosperity and political freedom. They are living under the shadows of fear and violence. Altaf Hussain ruled Karachi for more than three decades with iron hand and used violence as a mean to silence and repress the dissent within the party and to frightened the masses. Altaf Hussain used his party machine and organisational structure to build his reign of fear and terror.

The working masses should build a mass movement of the workers, students, poor, small shop keepers and youth of all ethnic groups and nationalities to build an alternate platform. Working class movement can cut across sectarian, ethnic, linguistic and racial divide and tensions to make Karachi a thriving peaceful city.