Threats of Emergency and Martial Law is not over yet
Pakistan is among the few countries in the world where political predictions are extremely difficult to make, because political situation changes after every few months or weeks. The political and social crisis is so deep that it is impossible to bring long lasting stability in the country for any regime. As the present regime is loosing power and becoming more and more unstable, it is bringing more volatility and uncertainty in the situation. Everyday some thing new comes out in the media. One day we heard the news of a possible deal between the PPP and Musharaf and next day something contrary comes out. The discussion about elections and true democracy one day and imposition of emergency and Martial Law on the next day.
On the one hand the regime is talking about the elections and at the same time it is also talking about the imposition of emergency or even Martial law. There were rumors on 9th and 10th of August that government has decided to impose emergency in the country and want to postpone the general elections for one year. All the news channels were busy airing the news of emergency for 24 hours. Every body was worried and uncertain about the situation. Stock market crashed as it lost more than 900 points in single day. Foreign investors started withdrawing their money. After this 24 hour drama and confusion, the government announced that emergency will not be imposed and it was just a rumor. Few days later General Musharaf told the media that government send him the proposal to impose emergency but he refused to sign. He did it only after the phone call of American foreign minister. His legal advisers also ask him not to impose emergency in the country under these circumstances. The Americans and legal advisors saved him from another possible embarrassment from the hands of Supreme Court.
The present situation in Pakistan can be described in one word and that is “confusion”. Every one seems confused in the ruling class including government, opposition parties and military establishment. Musharaf wants his reelection as uniformed president from the present assemblies at any cast, but he is still not sure that he will be able to do that. There is total confusion on this issue. There is no clarity that when the general elections will be held. Musharaf is also not sure whether to make a deal with PPP. There is also confusion in the opposition camp. PPP wants to strike a deal with Musharaf. JUI the largest component of religious parties’ alliance (MMA) also wants to make a deal with the government. On the other hand some opposition parties wants to bring down the present regime through the street agitation, but there is no clear strategy to do that. Some opposition parties want to boycott the general elections under Musharaf but other parties wants to contest the elections under any circumstances.
Will Musharaf Survive?
The most debated issue in Pakistan at the moment is that how long will Musharaf survive? There is no doubt that Musharaf; s control over the power is weakened in last few months. His political future is not as bright as it was few months ago. The reinstatement of Chief Justice of Pakistan from the Supreme Court on 20th July2007 was the biggest below to his regime since he took over in 1999. Now Musharaf is faced with a hostile superior judiciary, more concerned establishment, rising Islamic militancy and extremism and increased discontent about his rule.
It is becoming increasingly difficult for him to continue as president and army chief at the same time. As the presidential election is looming fast, the issue of his uniform is once again taking the centre stage in the political arena. He desperately wanted to re elect himself as president in uniform to continue his rule. Musharaf has the required majority in the assemblies to get himself elected but the laws and constitution does not allow him to continue as uniformed president. He needs the support of two third legislators to amend the constitution, which is not available to him. In 2002, the religious parties’ alliance (MMA) provided him the required number to amend the constitution and now he wants to get the support of PPP to amend it again. It is becoming increasingly difficult for Musharaf to continue as president in uniform. If he failed to re-elect himself as president from the present assemblies, as a result of a supreme court decision against him, it is most likely that he will impose emergency or direct military rule to hang on to the power. But it will be blunder on his part and most likely he will be removed by another General. Americans are also putting pressure on him to doff of the uniform and become civilian president. Musharaf has left with little options to continue his rule and it seems that he has spent his good times in the power. He is very unpopular in the masses and he is also not enjoying the support in military as he was sometimes ago. Next couple of months will determine the future of General Musharaf and his allies. But one thing is becoming clear that he will not be able to extend his rule for a longer period of time without making new alliances and giving more concessions to his staunch opponents like Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto. His survival mainly depends on the decisions of the superior courts on different constitutional issues.
Rebellious Judiciary
There is a rebellion going on in the superior judiciary against the establishment. First time in the history of Pakistan, the judiciary is asserting itself and showing independence from the establishment. The judiciary has not only started to make decisions against the establishment but it also taking up the issues that they never took up before. The Supreme Court not only reinstated the Chief Justice but also strike down the decades old law which allow the government to send judges on forced leave. The country wide month’s long struggle of lawyers and political activists gave new confidence and courage to the superior judiciary to go against establishment. Hostile judiciary can become a big obstacle in the way of present regime which wants to extend its rule beyond the legal limits. Supreme Court is taking many suo motu actions against the police brutalities and tortures, crimes against the women and illegal and ultra constitutional measures and actions of the establishment. Overwhelming majority of the people now looks towards the Supreme Court with new hopes. Chief Justice is still the most popular and respected person linked with a state institution. First time in the history of Pakistan, the superior judiciary has started to hear the petitions against intelligence agencies for detaining people without any legal proceedings. All the political parties are approaching judiciary on all sorts of issues. Judicial activism is hurting the government badly and making it difficult for them to fulfill their wishes. A new confrontation is taking place between judiciary and establishment, which is a new phenomenon in Pakistan. Traditionally, the judiciary always helped the establishment to draw up its political designs. Judiciary always provides legal and constitutional cover and legitimacy to the military governments and even allows them to amend the constitution according to their political requirements. But decades long cooperation and collaboration came to an end on 9th March 2007 when General Musharaf tried to sack the Chief Justice. It is not easy for the establishment to curtail the pro-active judiciary. The confrontation between two state institutions will further deepen the crisis.
Musharaf, Benazir Deal
Finally General Musharaf took another u-turn and decided to get support of her arch rival Benazir Bhutto. Musharaf in his 7 years rule constantly attacked Benazir Bhutto for being corrupt and security risk for the country. To strengthen his position in the corridors of the power, he decided to make a compromise with her.
The much talked deal between General Musharaf and Benazir Bhutto has finally been achieved. Both Benazir Bhutto and Musharaf are denying any sort of deal between them.
Americans played key role in this deal and they are putting lot of pressure on Musharaf to make concessions to Benazir. American Imperialism also pressurizing Musharaf to finalise a power sharing formula with PPP after the upcoming general elections. For Americans the Musharaf- Benazir coalition is the best option to carry forward their policies in Pakistan. Americans are also insisting that Musharaf should doff of the uniform and becomes a civilian president after securing the second term. Benazir is ready to accept him as civilian president if he accepts her as prime minister. There are still some issues that need to be settled before implementation of the deal.
This deal will benefit Musharaf and gave him some time in power. But on the other hand this deal has further eroded the support for Benazir. Benazir Bhutto is ready to make any sacrifice to come to the power and she strongly believes that establishment will bring her to the power. She has lost confidence in the masses and wants to get support from the Pakistani establishment and American Imperialism. PPP is continuing to further shift to the right.
Benazir and Musharaf have common policies on many issues. They both are Pro- America and followed American policies. They both have common economic policies of free market economy and believe in neo liberalism. They both have liberal views and want to continue with rotten and repressive capitalist system.
The Crisis of Leadership
There is a serious leadership crisis in the country. Latest surveys by BBC radio, local news channels and some local and international NGOS are clearly indicating this trend. There is no leader at the moment, which can claims that he or she enjoys the overwhelming support of the masses. According to these surveys, Z.A.Bhutto the founding chairman of PPP is still the most popular leader in Pakistan, followed by Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto. General Musharaf stands at 6th spot. Nawaz Sharif has become popular because he refused to make any sort of deal or compromise with Musharaf. Benazir Bhutto has lost support since she met with Musharaf in UAE to make a deal. There is no religious leader in list of ten top politicians of the country. According to these surveys, the majority of people have no trust on military generals or civilian politicians because they have failed to deliver. In 2004, the religious leaders were the most trusted politicians of the country but now they are the least trusted. The results of these surveys are not different from the general mood of the working people.
There is wide spread mistrust about the political parties and leadership. Overwhelming majority has no interest in the politics because they feel betrayed by the parties and leadership. The main political parties have no real program, strategy and ideology to solve the basic problems faced by the working masses. Even these parties are not talking about the real issues of the working class and poor people. Opposition parties routinely criticize the present regime for price hike, poverty, unemployment, falling living conditions, rising Islamic militancy and lack of basic facilities like health, education, clean drinking water and decent housing, but these parties have no alternate program and policies to solve these problems. If you ask them that how you can solve these problems, the religious leaders always reply, Islam is the solution and for capitalist and feudal leaders the answer is democracy.
They are not interested in the issues of working people. The working class people have lost faith in the politics and clear majority consider it wastage of time. Hundreds of thousands people which came to welcome and see Chief Justice when he was traveling to different parts of the country are not ready to come out on the streets on the call of political parties. The process of political alienation of the working class is still continued and in last few years it has even increased. For the masses, all the parties are same and their only goal and objective is to share the power with establishment to plunder the state resources. The charisma and popularity of PPP and Benazir Bhutto has eroded to the lowest levels. Religious leaders have been discredited and loosing support. Nationalist parties in different provinces are not enjoying the support that they were enjoying in the past. Military rule and generals have also lost significant support and becomes very unpopular. The already existing political vacuum is widening up and becoming bigger. This situation can be compared with situation in early 1960s and at that time this led to the revolutionary movement of working class and poor in 1968-69. This was the biggest revolutionary movement in the history of Pakistan.
Mass Workers Party Needed
There is no working class party exist in Pakistan. The working class has no political voice and platform to defend and fight for its political interests. The absence of a mass working class party has further disillusioned the working people from the politics. Working class needs its own party with clear socialist program. Many trade unions are raising the idea of a working class party but nothing practically has been done. Some union leaders are using this slogan to satisfy their membership, which are putting pressure on them to form a workers party. The question is mainly raised by the right wing union leadership which is frightened from a real mass working class party based on a radical fighting program. There is no opposition to the idea of a workers party in the wider layers of the workers and specially trade union activists. As the working class started to take part actively in politics, the idea of a new workers party will become more prominent in the labour movement.
Socialist Movement is raising this idea in the trade unions and working class since 2004. SMP constantly campaigning on this issue and it got very positive response from the workers. SMP is planning to launch a country wide campaign during the general elections to be held in December this year or early next year. There is big potential for this campaign to develop and expand on national level. SMP will be first left organization to launch such a campaign. SMP is also campaigning to organize a national trade union conference on this issue in March next year. These small steps can pave the way for the big steps in this direction. Next couple of years will be crucial in this regard. The formation of a mass revolutionary party of the working class is a difficult task, but it needs to be done. The political situation is ripping up for such a development.