No Way Forward on Capitalist Basis
Pakistan’s politics is moving towards confrontation. Political developments of the last three weeks have demonstrated that the opposition has gained the confidence to challenge the government in the streets. Though the anti-government movement has not yet reached the critical mass to become a sustained nationwide agitation, the diverse opposition is trying to close its ranks to pursue the one point agenda of dislodging the Musharaf-led military-dominated political order.
The political situation has changed drastically in last few weeks. No body anticipated that demonstrations and rallies against the blasphemous cartoons will change the political situation so rapidly. In the beginning government give free hand to the demonstrators belonging to the religious parties, but when these demonstrations and rallies become violent, the government tried to stop these demonstrations with force. In the beginning government encouraged the people to organize demonstrations and rallies, but soon she realized that situation might went out of control, so she started the campaign to discourage the people participating in these rallies and violent demonstrations.
Sugar Crises and Mass Anger
It was clear from the beginning that government wants to use the issue of blasphemous cartoons to divert the attention of the working masses from the increased sugar prices. 5 weeks ago the sugar prices increased about 100%. The prices went to 45 rupees per kg from 27 rupees per kg. There was wide spread anger against this unjustified increase. The sugar industry owners had earned the profits of 7 billion rupees (140 million dollars) in just one month. Majority of these sugar mills owned by the ruling party leaders and ministers and some opposition leaders. They are using the shortage of sugar to pile up their profits and wealth. This increase has affected every family in Pakistan, but poor working class families have suffered the most. The government was frightened from the backlash of masses. The Increased anger was very visible in the masses. The government was worried that opposition parties can use this issue to mobilize the masses on the street. The government was afraid from a mass anti government movement. The statements of government ministers were clear evidence of these sentiments. One minister said that government should nationalize the sugar industry. In this background government tried to use the cartoon issue to divert the attention of the people. People really forget the increased sugar prices because of violence and increased number of demonstrations and rallies.
This strategy fired back. These demonstrations become violent and completely out of control. People started smashing the government buildings. Many buildings of foreign restaurants and banks were ransacked and set on fire by the angry mobs in Lahore and Peshawar. In Lahore the angry mob set on fire hundreds of motor cycles and cars. Same happened in Peshawar. Government made unprecedented move not to deploy police on the main roads and streets on the day of demonstration. Normally heavy contigent of riot police always deployed for even the demonstrations and rallies of few dozen people.
The people clearly showed the discontent against the government policies. Specially youth took to the streets to show their dissident. They used this opportunity to release their anger and frustration that exist from long.
Free hand for Religious Parties
Musharaf regime gave free hand to the religious parties and groups to mobilize the people for these demonstrations. In the beginning these demonstrations and rallies were organized by the religious groups and leaders, which are close to the establishment. Even ruling party Muslim League participated in these demonstrations. But when opposition parties like PPP and PML-N started the moblisation, the government imposed the ban on public rallies and protest demonstrations. The government used the argument that these demonstrations have become violent and out of control, so it is necessary to protect the property and lives of people. The government started crack down against the activists and leaders of PPP and PML-N. Many were arrested and put behind the bars. But in the meantime the religious parties enjoyed the full freedom. The religious parties fully used this freedom to mobilize their supporters. They mobilized hundreds of thousands of people across the country. In the beginning these demonstrations were directed only against the blasphemous cartoons, but later it turned against the Musharaf regime.
MMA at the Forefront
The cartoon issue was a Godsend for the MMA. The Religious Parties Alliance (MMA) used this opportunity to mobilize their supporters on this very sensitive religious issue and later turned them against the Musharaf regime. MMA got this big opportunity to improve their fast fading image and popularity. This religious alliance lost their support because of pro-establishment policies. Now they are using this opportunity to muster support for the upcoming parliamentary elections in 2007. For them this issue is not a mere religious issue, but a political one to challenge the regime to improve their image.
There is no doubt that MMA and religious fundamentalist groups are enjoying a high level of support at this stage. Religious parties and groups have shown again that they are capable of mobilizing sizeable people.
The government’s policy of weakening the mainstream capitalist political parties like PPP and PML-N also helped the MMA strengthen its political standing. It is an irony that in the past , the government and MMA worked in harmony because of its power interests in NWFP and Baluchistan. MMA helped Musharaf to continue its present political set up under the military umbrella. MMA made the deal with Musharaf to pass the 17th amendment in the constitution to gave legal and constitutional legitimacy to continue as uniformed president. But despite having cooperation with the government, the MMA continued milled protest and anti government policies to act as main opposition to this government. MMA verbally opposed many government policies, but in a frame work of present political system. Despite the grievances with government, the MMA could not take on the government because it lacked an issue for nationwide mobilization. Now MMA has the issue and it is using it against the government to make some concessions.
The MMA has now turned the movement into an anti-Musharaf drive. It is clear that the extreme right wing faction of the state is also behind this anti-government movement. This faction wants to reverse some policies of the present regime. As we mentioned in the earlier articles on earth quake ( can be seen on this website) that right wing faction is strengthen itself and it will strike back, as get the better chance. Now this faction is backing the MMA to create problems against the regime.
The Musharaf regime has become a victim of its own policies. It weekend the PPP and PML-N to strengthen its own faction of ruling Muslim League. In this process it provided more space to religious parties to consolidate their political position. If the religious parties decided to seriously challenge the government, there will be hardly any political force to counter the MMA,s enhanced political clout. Working class can do that , but it needs strong political organization to fulfill this task and at present this does not exist.
The Response of Mushraf Regime
The General Musharaf has responded to the opposition challenge by giving a tough message that the civil administration and the military stand by him. He is trying to give the impression that his regime is solid and strong and still firmly holds on to the power. He presided over three important meetings last week to demonstrate his hold over state institutions. These included a meeting involving top government officials and the bureaucracy on February 27, The corps commanders meeting on February28, and the National Security Council meeting on March 1.
The corps commanders issued a tough warning against using the cartoon issue to pursue “political or vested interests”. They declare that they shall deal with such unscrupulous elements with stern hand. The strong political statement once again proved the growing non-professional role of the corps commanders. The government is confident that the support of civil and military establishment will discourage the opposition from seriously challenging it in the streets.
One thing is clear that government is not comfortable with this situation. The crisis has deepened in the regime. The situation in Baluchistan is already out of control. The on going military operation in North Wazirastan has taken a ugly turn. Military operation has failed to curb the activities of alleged terrorists. The successful strike on the call of opposition parties is a big blow to government. The pressure on general Musharaf is also mounting to decide the issue of his uniform in 2007. It is not easy for him to continue his rule in this manner.
It has become clear that ruling classes now longer live peacefully with each other for long period of time. They are heading towards more open confrontation. The politics is entering into stormy waters. The crisis will develop further.